TSM versus fnatic | 13/08/2015

TSM  fnatic
Team SoloMid logo fnatic csgo logo
Date League Match type
13/08/2015 Game Show CS:GO League Season 2 Best-of-Five
TBA logo TBA logo TBA logo TBA logo TBA logo
CSGO Lounge Odds Egaming bets Odds Our Pick Our Odds Risk level
52% / 48% 1.9 / 1.7  TSM 60% / 40% 10/10

TSM (karrigan, dupreeh, device, cajunb, Xyp9x)

Past 5 matches:

2:0 vs PENTA (16:8 mirage; 16:5 train)

0:3 vs EnVyUs (3:16 cache; 9:16 cobblestone; 12:16 inferno)

16:4 vs Renegades (dust2)

16:6 vs SK (overpass)

19:15 vs SK (cobblestone)

Ever since TSM’s run at Dreamhack Valencia, which they won overall (2:0 vs Cloud9 in Grand Final), the Danes have been in a slump. It seems like after Dreamhack they went to a vacation from whom they never actually returned from (form wise). It still feels like their mindsets are floating around somewhere out there thinking about the glory days.

Their form at APM tourney was pure trash to say the least. We all knew that they weren’t practicing hard at the time, but for world’s top 3 team to go out of the tournament in fashion they did was just a shocker for everyone! They did came back a little during the IEM Gamescom 2015 event, managing to score victories over any other team (Renegades, CLG, SK, mousesports) but the new EnVyUs roster. While that might come off as a decent showing, I still think that the TSM we all knew from their glory days is farm from the one we’re seeing now.

As we are approaching Major at a quite fast pace, I do think that TSM have tried their best to solve the problems within the team and return to their prime form we all know and love. If there is anything we can rely on it’s TSM when they are playing in a Major like tournament that has a lot on the line!

fnatic (pronax, flusha, JW, olofmeister, KRIMZ)

Past 5 matches:

0:2 vs Cloud9 (19:21 train; 7:16 mirage)

2:0 vs NiP (16:14 train; 16:14 mirage)

10:16 vs TSM (overpass)

16:9 vs Liquid (dust2)

2:0 vs ENCORE (16:8 inferno; 16:6 cobblestone)

The Swedish giant also known as fnatic has not played any official games since 18th of July. Everyone needs some quality rest now and then, but being so close to the Major I’m actually not sure that this is what they would have wanted. Of course, they still are the world’s number one team and they have a beastly lineup with 4 players that can perform at the highest level seen in the modern CS:GO era, but as we have seen in the past, at a times, that is not always a factor to rely on when playing other world class teams.

If we look at their past tournament showings, Dreamhack Valencia being the most recent one, I don’t see how they could have gone for a vacation here, knowing that they played just decent during the actual tournament (3rd-4th place finish suffering a loss vs Cloud9 in semi-final). They also had the closest series seen in a while vs NiP during the last match of the group stage (16:14 two times). So basically, at one point they were 4 rounds away from being eliminated from the event. That does not feel comforting at all.

As of now, I think we’re witnessing the closest gap between all the top teams ever seen in the history of CS:GO, and if you are the number one team in the world you would not want to sleep on your previous achievements, but instead, you should be motivated to put every hour possible into the mastering your craft before other teams catch up and grab the trophy you are aiming for.

The Match-up

This is becoming the “el-classico” of modern CS:GO. Any one who loves watching quality CS, loves watching TSM play fnatic. These two teams are full on top-tier. They both have great IGL in form of karrigan and pronax, they both have their stars (device, cajunb, dupreeh; olofmeister, krimz, flusha, JW), as well as, they both have incredible set of players who can handle the big green (device, karrigan; olofmeister, JW). Long story short – they are both armed from neck to toes.

Looking at previous times these two teams have met, they both have managed to score some incredible victories against each other. The most interesting thing is that TSM has never lost a series/game vs fnatic, when they have not been in the drivers seat, whereas, fnatic have managed to lose to TSM four times when TSM has arguably been the underdog (looking at CSGO Lounge odds and the outcome of the series/games). So if there is one thing we have learned from that, fnatic do throw, TSM don’t.

Prediction:  As these two are so evenly matched (I could not actually thing of any more even match-up than this at a time) I do favor the team that has at least been playing during the past few weeks and actually competed in a few tournaments keeping up their play time to a maximum (TSM). Whereas fnatic have been on a vacation and has no taste of an official match for the past few weeks. As this is the Grand Final of Game Show CS:GO League Season 2 and TSM even have a 1:0 advantage due to coming from the upper bracket, I just don’t see them dropping the series here!

Suggestion: As of now, CSGO Lounge odds are 52%/48% in favor of TSM. I do think TSM is the favorite in this match-up and I would favor betting on them even if the odds would go to 60%/40%, but seeing these odds plus knowing that TSM is already 1:0 up in a Bo5 series I just can’t not advice you to go medium on TSM, as betting odds are clearly below the actually probability of TSM winning the series in my opinion!

Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose! Good luck with your bets!

– Gekons

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